Die japanischen Aktienmärkte legten im August um +3,7 Prozent zu und konnten somit eine Erholung verzeichnen, die von KI- und Halbleiter-Aktien dominiert war. In diesem positiven Marktumfeld verzeichnete der CT (Lux) Japan Equities IE EUR (WKN A3ERN9, ISIN LU2656574600) eine bessere Rendite als seine Benchmark, die im Berichtsmonat +5,95 Prozent auf Eurobasis betrug. Zu den besten Performern im Portfolio gehörten Recruit und Shizuoka Financial, auch die Aktie von GO Inc entwickelte sich sehr positiv. FondsManager Daisuke Nomoto berichtet in seinem Monatskommentar, welche Veränderungen im Portfolio des Japan-Fonds vorgenommen wurden und wie die weiteren Aussichten für den japanischen Aktienmarkt einzuschätzen sind.
Summary
◼ TThe MSCI Japan Index returned 3.7% in yen in August.
◼ Gross of fees, the fund outperformed its benchmark.
◼ Stock selection was positive; allocation effect was negative.
◼ We did not open any new position.
Market Background
Japanese equities rebounded in August, with the benchmark MSCI Japan Index rising 3.7% in yen terms. The recovery was led by a rebound in AI-related and semiconductor stocks and supported by resilient corporate earnings. There were growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would continue to normalise monetary policy through higher interest rates.
Sentiment improved as concerns around AI-related capital expenditure eased following earnings results from the US technology sector. Continued investment in AI data centres in the US also provided support for Japanese technology and semiconductor-related companies. In addition, a looser domestic fiscal stance supported selected domestic sectors but was also a source of bond-market pressure.
Equities came under pressure during the month amid rising global bond yields and renewed uncertainty in the Middle East. The market recovered towards month-end as earnings remained supportive, despite US-Iran tensions re-escalating. Corporate share buybacks also continued to support the market.
In terms of economic data, inflation continued to move closer to the BoJ’s 2% target during the month. Price indicators pointed to broadening inflationary pressures, reinforcing market expectations that the central bank will increase interest rates.
Despite expectations for normalising monetary policy, Japan’s policy rate remained low relative to other major economies, and the yen continued to face depreciation pressure. The joint US-Japan currency intervention boosted the yen into early-August, but it weakened throughout the month, although remaining stronger than its late-July low.
Within the MSCI Japan, utilities, communication services and energy were the strongest sectors in the benchmark in August. Real estate was the only sector to post a negative return, while financials and consumer discretionary were among the weaker-performing sectors.
Performance
Gross of fees, the fund outperformed its benchmark due to positive stock selection, although sector allocation was slightly negative. Industrials, financials and materials were the key contributors mainly due to stock selection. Conversely, the security selection and the underweight in communication services detracted.
Top stock-level contributors included the overweights in HR technology company Recruit, Japanese regional lender Shizuoka Financial and mobility platform GO Inc. The overweight in Recruit helped as the company reported impressive results for its fiscal first quarter, with revenue rising considerably year-on-year and basic earnings per share (EPS) increasing sharply. The company subsequently raised its full-year guidance for revenue, profit and EPS, supported by growth in its AI-powered hiring tools.
Shizuoka’s shares rose after the bank reported strong results, driven by higher net interest income and gains on securities sales. The group raised its full-year profit and dividend forecasts as a result. Japanese banking stocks generally performed well due to persistent domestic inflation and expectations of further interest rate increases. GO Inc was supported by continued post-IPO momentum and investor optimism around its leadership position in Japan’s mobility and taxi-hailing market.
Detractors included the lack of exposure to fiber-optic equipment manufacturer Fujikura and the overweight holdings in life insurer Daiichi Life and industrial ceramics manufacturer NGK Corp.
Lack of exposure to Fujikura detracted as the stock outperformed the wider market thanks to strong earnings, driven mainly by AI data centre demand.
The overweight in Daiichi Life Group detracted as the company’s decision not to raise forecasts proved a modest disappointment.
NGK Corp underperformed as the shares gave back some of their strong year-to-date gains amid profit-taking.
Activity
We did not start or exit any position during the month.
Outlook
We expect Japanese equities to be supported throughout 2026 by a multiyear structural upcycle still in its early stages, underpinned by reflationary dynamics, rising wages, continued corporate governance improvements, and a steady shift of household assets from savings into investment.
After decades of deflation that crippled Japan’s economic growth, moderate inflation is now viewed as beneficial.
Rising prices are catalysing a positive economic cycle by motivating Japanese corporations to pursue growthoriented investments and improve capital efficiency – breaking the cautious, cash-hoarding behaviour that previously hindered expansion and productivity gains.
Japanese markets have rallied following Sanae Takaichi’s appointment as Prime Minister, driven by expectations for “Sanae-nomics” – a growth-oriented economic strategy echoing the transformative Abenomics policies of the past decade. The established coalition following the recent election further solidifies the governing bloc and promises enhanced investment in Osaka, Japan’s second-largest metropolis, creating significant investment opportunities. Several catalysts, including enhancements to the corporate governance code and a broad economic security roadmap covering defence, cybersecurity, quantum technology, critical minerals, nuclear power and energy, are expected going forward and should reinforce investor confidence.
In geopolitics, periodic tensions with China have historically had only limited and short-lived effects on Japanese equities, and we expect a similar pattern going forward given the proactive measures Japan has taken to mitigate potential risks. Meanwhile, ongoing policy uncertainty in the US may encourage global investors to rotate into non-US equities, including Japan.
Developments in the Middle East warrant ongoing monitoring. However, Japan holds substantial strategic oil reserves, providing a meaningful buffer against near term disruption. A sustained period of crude prices approaching 175 US dollars per barrel would likely be required to push the economy toward recession, and current price levels remain well below this threshold.
Unlike in previous cycles, earnings growth from domestically oriented companies is now expected to play a meaningful role in driving overall equity market performance.
Yen strength may materialise as the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts, while tightening Fed policy could drive yen weakness due to widening interest-rate differentials. Currency movements create sector-specific effects: a weaker yen benefits export-oriented industries while pressuring domestic businesses, with yen appreciation producing the reverse impact.
Japanese equities remain attractively valued relative to global peers and current interest-rate levels, offering room for modest multiple expansion alongside steady earnings. The market continues to offer significant opportunities, with many TOPIX-listed stocks still valued below 1x price-to-book.
The long-term investment case for Japan remains compelling: the country has evolved from its 1980 model – characterised by aggressive market share expansion, low margins and high capital expenditure – toward one centred on capital efficiency and return-focused management. In our view, Japanese corporates are now structurally stronger and more disciplined than in past decades.
